GameStop: Is this Game Still Worth Playing?

9 minutes

 

GameStop

Recently GameStop (GME) has taken a beating in the market with the release of some very unflattering news. As we all know the stock market is a very unforgiving place.

GameStop came across my radar a few years ago when I was doing my regular screening looking for new opportunities. Until recently I hadn’t pulled the trigger on the company, but after digging into it a little more it appeared to be a great opportunity. In the light of recent news, I am wondering if I made a good decision or walked into a value trap.

I admit I was first attracted to the 6% dividend yield, which was very enticing. In addition to the low P/E ratio, it appeared this was a great opportunity, as well as other financial strengths.

In this article, I will take a look at my findings again and re-evaluate my decision to buy and whether or not to stay in at this point or to sell and just cut my losses.

Retail is a brutal environment and the competition can be fierce. With the recent announcement of Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox’s subscription service there has been a lot of concern among GameStop investors in how this will affect the company long-term.

Let’s take a look.

Business Overview

Founded in 1994 in Grapevine, Texas. GameStop operates more than 7600 stores now. These stores are located in the U.S., Australia, Canada, and Europe.

Continue reading “GameStop: Is this Game Still Worth Playing?”

How to Find Wide Investment Moats the Easy Way

13 minutes

 

wide investment moat

Finding a company with a strong competitive advantage like an Apple (AAPL) is what every investor is looking for. It is not easy and there are not a lot of formulas that you can use to find them. We are all on the lookout for companies with wide investment moats. Especially value investors. We love these types of companies. Companies with wide investment moats are likely to be around for a long time, not that they are invincible. But they are great companies for growing wealth over time.

“But all the time, if you’ve got a wonderful castle, there are people out there who are going to try and attack it and take it away from you. And I want a castle that I can understand, but I want a castle with a moat around it.”

Warren Buffett from a talk he gave to MBA students at the University of Florida

What is the definition of an investment moat?

Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett are generally accepted as the originators of the term “moat”.

A moat refers to “business’ ability to maintain competitive advantages over its competitors in order to protect its long-term profits and market share from competing firms.”

Investopedia

Competitive advantage is going to be any factor that allows a company to provide a good or service that is essentially the same as it’s competitors. But allowing them to beat their competitors in profits.

An example of this would be if you shop online for a product. Chances are you will see many different companies offering the same product but one stands out because they offer a lower price or perhaps free shipping.

This gives that company a competitive advantage over their competitors because of the free shipping, that the others may not be able or willing to offer.

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Latticework of Mental Models: Better Decisions, Better Investors

14 minutes

 

latticework of mental models

How do we become better investors? Better decision makers? Having a latticework of mental models to hang our thoughts and choices on is a great start. Creating these models is how we learn to become better decision makers. Before creating our latticework of mental models we need to create the mental models that we will use. We must explore the big ideas from the major disciplines.

Physics, biology, psychology, philosophy, literature, history, sociology, and others.

These are the big disciplines that we call the models.

Our goal is not to remember facts and be able to repeat them, like on a test in college. The goal is to hang these models on a latticework of mental models with concrete examples in our head to help us remember them. And apply them in our life.

The latticework of mental models puts them in a form that we can use analyze a wide variety of situations. This enables us to make better decisions. When these big ideas from multiple disciplines all point toward the same conclusion. Then we can begin to make the conclusion that we have come across an important truth.

Charlie Munger and the latticework of mental models

This idea of a latticework comes Charlie Munger, co-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Munger is one of the greatest cross-disciplinary thinkers in the world.

I could try to explain his thoughts on worldly wisdom, but I would fail miserably. So instead we will use his words.

Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ’em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form. Continue reading “Latticework of Mental Models: Better Decisions, Better Investors”

Paper trading: 7 Benefits to practicing buying stocks

10 minutes

paper trading

Scared to pull the trigger on that first stock purchase? Looking for a way to start practicing before you put your actual, hard-earned money on the line? Buying stocks by paper trading might be one of the best ways to start learning how the process works. It also gives you a means to practice your methods of picking stocks to buy before actually putting the real money in. Let’s check out the 7 ways to practice buying stocks by paper trading.

Paper Trading Definition:

According to Investopedia.

“A paper trade refers to using simulated trading to practice buying and selling securities without actual money being involved.”

Pretty simple huh?

Paper trading can be done pretty simply by using a spreadsheet and some simple formulas. All that is needed is the time to enter the tickers, prices and any changes that occur. Whether you initiate a position change, via a buy or sell. Or a stop-loss.

A much easier and better way to go is to utilize the many different platforms that are out there to allow you to do this electronically. The many different apps that enable you to do this type of trading are amazing.

Let’s talk a little bit about them.

Benefit number 1: Online trading platforms

The explosion of online trading platforms has made it easy to practice paper trading without actually committing real money.

Let’s talk about some of the ones out there that I use:

Stock Wars: This was my first foray into paper trading. This app starts you with a $100,000 account. You can buy and trade any stock or bond that is available on the market.

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6 Easy Steps to Discounted Cash Flows for Beginners

13 minutes

 

discounted cash flow

In our search for the best way to evaluate a company, we look at intrinsic value formulas to help us determine a fair price for a company. Using a discounted cash flow evaluation is one of the ways we can do this.

Accounting scandals and manipulations of financial earnings have given a rise to the importance of analyzing free cash flows. These numbers are much more difficult to “fudge” and lead to a truer value of the company.

Use of this formula will also give you much greater insight into the company. You will get a better understanding of its growth in operating earnings, capital efficiency, the capital structure of the balance sheet, the cost of the equity and debt, and the expected length of the growth of the company.

Another advantage is this formula is less likely to manipulated by dishonest  accounting practices

We are going to take a look at this formula today and try to break it down and make it as easy to understand as we can. I am not going to lie to you there will be math involved but it is not difficult math.

In the business of finding the best intrinsic value for a company, we will be required from time to time to utilize math to find that intrinsic value.

So what is a discounted cash flow analysis?

According to Investopedia

“DCF analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is then used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.”

What does all that mean?

Simply to estimate the money you would receive from an investment while adjusting the time value of money.

The reason you do this is the value of the dollar today is not what it will be worth in the future. It could be more or it could be less. So to try to adjust for that we use the discounted cash flow model or formula to help us find the closest intrinsic value we can find.

The discounted cash flow formula is powerful, but it can be flawed. Remember that it is just a mathematical tool to be used to find an intrinsic value.

You should never buy a company based on this value alone.

It is only as good as the information you put into it. As my music teacher used to say to me. “Garbage in, garbage out.” Small changes or errors in our calculations can have a huge impact on our value.This is why we don’t base a buying decision on just one formula. Important though it may be.

Last week we discussed the intrinsic value formula that was created by Benjamin Graham. This was a much easier, simpler way to calculate an intrinsic value of a company. The look at discounted cash flows will give us another tool in our effort to find the most accurate intrinsic value of a company we are looking to buy.

There are many different variations of formulas to arrive at an intrinsic value. The Ben Graham formula is one of them and today’s formula, the discounted cash flow is considered a variation of that effort as well.

These are the two most commonly used formulas, but there are others that we may discuss further down the road.

Ok, let’s start.

6 Steps to Find an Intrinsic Value of a Stock Utilizing a Discounted Cash Flow Formula

There are six steps along this path to find the intrinsic value of a company using the discounted cash flow formula. We will take a look at each one and break them down so you can follow along.

For this example, we are going to use a company that we analyzed last week so we can compare our results later.

Gamestop (GME)

The steps we will use will be as follows.

  1. Locate all the required financial data
  2. Calculate the discount rate and use it to discount the future value of the business
  3. Perform a discounted free cash flow (DCF) analysis
  4. Calculate the company’s net present value (NPV)
  5. Calculate the company’s terminal value (TV)
  6. Combine the net present value and the terminal value and come up with the company’s intrinsic value

Sounds simple huh? It is and you can do this. I will be here to help you along the way.

Step 1: Find all the necessary financial information

Before we dive into this we are going to need to locate all the necessary numbers to fill into our formulas as we go along. And then it’s just a matter of plugging them in.

For our calculations, there are 14 financial figures we are going to need to assemble before we can calculate our intrinsic value.

 

  • Current Share Price: Simple, find the current market price of the company
  • Shares Outstanding: Again, pretty simple. Find the total number of shares that are issued and currently held by the company’s shareholders.
  • Free Cash Flow: This number represents the company’s capacity for generating free cash flow, which can be used for future expansion, paying down debt, and increasing shareholder value with buybacks or dividends.
  • Long-term Growth Rate: the expected rate at which the company will grow
  • Business Tax Rate: the business income tax paid to the government.
  • Business Interest Rate: the effective rate that the company is charged for its loans and any borrowing.
  • Terminal Growth Rate: The rate that the company is expected to grow at after our cash flow projection period. We’ll use the country’s GDP growth rate as the Terminal Growth Rate
  • Market Value of Debt: the total dollar market value of a company’s short-term and long-term debt.
  • Market Value of Equity: otherwise known as the market cap. The total dollar market value of a company’s outstanding shares.
  • Stock Beta: Beta is a measure of how much the price of a company’s stock tends to fluctuate
  • Risk-Free Rate: the minimum rate of return that investors expect to earn from an investment without any risks. We’ll use a return of the 10-year Government Bond as a Risk-Free Rate.
  • Market Risk Premium: the rate of return over the Risk-Free Rate required by investors. For calculating the discount rate, you use the market risk premium data from NYU Stern School of Business.
  • Total Business Debt: total liabilities of the company
  • Total Business Cash: the total cash and cash equivalents of the company.

Step 2: Calculate the Discount Rate (WACC)

This is the most crucial part of our of discounted cash flow analysis. If this point is not done correctly it will throw off the future calculations and lead to an incorrect intrinsic value, which will lead to a possible purchase of an overvalued company. Leading to losses in your investments.

The key to this calculation is not assuming the same discount rate for every stock. You need to calculate the rate for each individual company or you could end up in a world of hurt.

Continue reading “6 Easy Steps to Discounted Cash Flows for Beginners”