Dividend Discount Model: A Simple Three Step Guide to Valuation

9 minutes

dividend discount model

In our quest to find the intrinsic value of stocks that we are interested in investing in, we have looked at several different types of formulas to help us determine that value. We haven’t considered the role that dividends play in these valuations, and as dividend investors, this is an important fact to factor in. Today we will discuss the dividend discount model to find the intrinsic value of dividend paying stocks.

Dividends are such an important variable to building our wealth, it is in our best interests to continue to add to our toolbox the different methods of calculating intrinsic value. The dividend discount model is simplicity itself and requires only three inputs to determine the value of a stock.

As we continue to strive to find the fair value of any stock that we wish to purchase, it is important to remember that the calculations that we do should never replace other methods of investigation, such as reading the 10-k, looking into other metrics, and doing our research.

In our efforts to narrow down our investing processes and learn more about different formulas to help us find intrinsic value, it is important to remember that we should try not to go down the rabbit hole in search of minutiae. A thought from Warren Buffett on intrinsic value.

“It’s better to be approximately right, than precisely wrong.”

That being said we should strive to be as accurate as we can, to help narrow down our errors in finding intrinsic value.

Dividend Discount Model Definition

Continue reading “Dividend Discount Model: A Simple Three Step Guide to Valuation”

6 Easy Steps to Discounted Cash Flows for Beginners

13 minutes

 

discounted cash flow

In our search for the best way to evaluate a company, we look at intrinsic value formulas to help us determine a fair price for a company. Using a discounted cash flow evaluation is one of the ways we can do this.

Accounting scandals and manipulations of financial earnings have given a rise to the importance of analyzing free cash flows. These numbers are much more difficult to “fudge” and lead to a truer value of the company.

Use of this formula will also give you much greater insight into the company. You will get a better understanding of its growth in operating earnings, capital efficiency, the capital structure of the balance sheet, the cost of the equity and debt, and the expected length of the growth of the company.

Another advantage is this formula is less likely to manipulated by dishonest  accounting practices

We are going to take a look at this formula today and try to break it down and make it as easy to understand as we can. I am not going to lie to you there will be math involved but it is not difficult math.

In the business of finding the best intrinsic value for a company, we will be required from time to time to utilize math to find that intrinsic value.

So what is a discounted cash flow analysis?

According to Investopedia

“DCF analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is then used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.”

What does all that mean?

Simply to estimate the money you would receive from an investment while adjusting the time value of money.

The reason you do this is the value of the dollar today is not what it will be worth in the future. It could be more or it could be less. So to try to adjust for that we use the discounted cash flow model or formula to help us find the closest intrinsic value we can find.

The discounted cash flow formula is powerful, but it can be flawed. Remember that it is just a mathematical tool to be used to find an intrinsic value.

You should never buy a company based on this value alone.

It is only as good as the information you put into it. As my music teacher used to say to me. “Garbage in, garbage out.” Small changes or errors in our calculations can have a huge impact on our value.This is why we don’t base a buying decision on just one formula. Important though it may be.

Last week we discussed the intrinsic value formula that was created by Benjamin Graham. This was a much easier, simpler way to calculate an intrinsic value of a company. The look at discounted cash flows will give us another tool in our effort to find the most accurate intrinsic value of a company we are looking to buy.

There are many different variations of formulas to arrive at an intrinsic value. The Ben Graham formula is one of them and today’s formula, the discounted cash flow is considered a variation of that effort as well.

These are the two most commonly used formulas, but there are others that we may discuss further down the road.

Ok, let’s start.

6 Steps to Find an Intrinsic Value of a Stock Utilizing a Discounted Cash Flow Formula

There are six steps along this path to find the intrinsic value of a company using the discounted cash flow formula. We will take a look at each one and break them down so you can follow along.

For this example, we are going to use a company that we analyzed last week so we can compare our results later.

Gamestop (GME)

The steps we will use will be as follows.

  1. Locate all the required financial data
  2. Calculate the discount rate and use it to discount the future value of the business
  3. Perform a discounted free cash flow (DCF) analysis
  4. Calculate the company’s net present value (NPV)
  5. Calculate the company’s terminal value (TV)
  6. Combine the net present value and the terminal value and come up with the company’s intrinsic value

Sounds simple huh? It is and you can do this. I will be here to help you along the way.

Step 1: Find all the necessary financial information

Before we dive into this we are going to need to locate all the necessary numbers to fill into our formulas as we go along. And then it’s just a matter of plugging them in.

For our calculations, there are 14 financial figures we are going to need to assemble before we can calculate our intrinsic value.

 

  • Current Share Price: Simple, find the current market price of the company
  • Shares Outstanding: Again, pretty simple. Find the total number of shares that are issued and currently held by the company’s shareholders.
  • Free Cash Flow: This number represents the company’s capacity for generating free cash flow, which can be used for future expansion, paying down debt, and increasing shareholder value with buybacks or dividends.
  • Long-term Growth Rate: the expected rate at which the company will grow
  • Business Tax Rate: the business income tax paid to the government.
  • Business Interest Rate: the effective rate that the company is charged for its loans and any borrowing.
  • Terminal Growth Rate: The rate that the company is expected to grow at after our cash flow projection period. We’ll use the country’s GDP growth rate as the Terminal Growth Rate
  • Market Value of Debt: the total dollar market value of a company’s short-term and long-term debt.
  • Market Value of Equity: otherwise known as the market cap. The total dollar market value of a company’s outstanding shares.
  • Stock Beta: Beta is a measure of how much the price of a company’s stock tends to fluctuate
  • Risk-Free Rate: the minimum rate of return that investors expect to earn from an investment without any risks. We’ll use a return of the 10-year Government Bond as a Risk-Free Rate.
  • Market Risk Premium: the rate of return over the Risk-Free Rate required by investors. For calculating the discount rate, you use the market risk premium data from NYU Stern School of Business.
  • Total Business Debt: total liabilities of the company
  • Total Business Cash: the total cash and cash equivalents of the company.

Step 2: Calculate the Discount Rate (WACC)

This is the most crucial part of our of discounted cash flow analysis. If this point is not done correctly it will throw off the future calculations and lead to an incorrect intrinsic value, which will lead to a possible purchase of an overvalued company. Leading to losses in your investments.

The key to this calculation is not assuming the same discount rate for every stock. You need to calculate the rate for each individual company or you could end up in a world of hurt.

Continue reading “6 Easy Steps to Discounted Cash Flows for Beginners”

Intrinsic Value Formula for Beginners

14 minutes

 

Stock Market

“The newer approach to security analysis attempts to value a common stock independently of its market price. If the value found is substantially above or below the current price, the analyst concludes that the issue should be bought or disposed of. This independent value has a variety of names, the most familiar of which is “intrinsic value”.

– Ben Graham, Security Analysis (1951 Edition)

Trying to determine the intrinsic value of a stock, car, home and iphone is an art form. There is no specific formula that can help you find the actual value of an item that does not have any error in it. There are many different formulas that can be used to determine the intrinsic value. But, unfortunately, there is no spreadsheet that you can plug numbers into that will give you that hard fast, rigid price.

Definition of Intrinsic Value

“A general definition of intrinsic value would be that value which is justified by the facts—e.g. assets, earnings, dividends, definite prospects. In the usual case, the most important single factor determining value is now held to be the indicated average future earning power. The intrinsic value would then be found by first estimating this earning power, and then multiplying that estimate by an appropriate ‘capitalization factor’”.

Ben Graham, Security Analysis

Or this from Joel Greenblatt,

“Value investing is figuring out what something is worth and paying a lot less for it.”

Finally this from Investopedia.

“The intrinsic value is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Additionally, intrinsic value is primarily used in options pricing to indicate the amount an option is in the money.”

All of these definitions say it pretty well. Intrinsic value is used for many things. It is mostly associated with buying stocks but it can be used for just about anything. Cars, homes, iphones, a loaf of bread. You get the idea.

Value investors use this theory and formulas to determine what the value of a company is. They use it to help find out what price they need to pay to achieve a margin of safety.

Notice that I haven’t mentioned price much? This is because intrinsic value focuses on what a company is worth, not how much it is trading for on the stock market. Price does not equal value.

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.”

Warren Buffett

This is the first line in the value investing manual. Well, maybe not. But it should be. Price is a function of the vagaries of the stock market. Mr. Market has a field day with the price.

Value is something much more valuable than the price you pay for something. Can you put a price on your home? No, but you can put a value on it.

In the stock market world finding the intrinsic value is of utmost importance. This gives us the ability to determine a margin of safety. Which is critical to determining whether or not this is a company we want to invest in.

Why does intrinsic value matter?

In a broad sense using an intrinsic value formula to calculate that value gives you the opportunity to decide whether or not to buy or sell a company.

Continue reading “Intrinsic Value Formula for Beginners”